INFORGE (inter-industry forecasting Germany) is a forecasting and simulation model which can be used to analyse the effects of structural changes in the German economy. INFORGE also acts as the base model for other models designed to explore issues outside of its economic core area. INFORGE was developed by GWS in 1996 and has been regularly updated and developed since. Other GWS models, ranging from PANTA RHEI, SPARTEN and LÄNDER to REGIO, are specific extensions of INFORGE.
INFORGE is a macroeconomic input-output model which is distinguished by its empirical specification and is constructed around the interrelationships between individual industrial sectors. Because the quality of the data used is vital, it uses only official data sources from the German Federal Statistical Office, in particular national accounts and input-output tables, and other data from domestic and international public organisations.
INFORGE’s strength is its ability to analyse complex socioeconomic and economic structures including their dependencies. The input-output relationship also allows the identification of direct and indirect effects and cause-effect relationships. This enables end-to-end modelling of interdependencies between individual industrial sectors, as well as an explanation of macroeconomic relationships which treats an economy as the sum of its individual parts.
An important feature of the INFORGE model is the inclusion of detailed trade data through the integration of the global trade model TINFORGE. The specifications for export demand thus take into account not just the economic power of Germany’s trading partners and their proportion of trade, but also distinguish between tradable goods categories. The model incorporates data for a total of 80 countries and 31 goods categories. This detailed treatment of German export demand enables in-depth analysis of the German economy against the backdrop of globalisation.
Selected Publications
- Labour demand in Germany by industrial sector, occupational field and qualification until 2025 - model calculations using the IAB/INFORGE model.
- Trade and qualification - linking qualification needs to Germany's export flows.
- Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell.
- Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell: Ein neuer ökonometrischer Ansatz gesamtwirtschaftlicher und länderspezifischer Szenarien.
- Folgen von beruflichen Passungsproblemen und Weiterbildungsbedarfe in einer digitalisierten Arbeitswelt.
- Economy 4.0 – Digitalisation and Its Effect on Wage Inequality.
Projects
- Sportstätten im demografischen Wandel (engl.)
- Sectoral analysis and forecasting
- Future developments in qualification and occupation - modell calculation until 2030
- Quarterly update of sectoral analysis and forecasting
- Aktualisierung der regionalen Beschäftigungsprojektion für Rheinland-Pfalz und dessen Regionen
- Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Branchen in Deutschland und potenzielle Rückwirkungen auf Hamburg
- Verbundprojekt, Dritter Bericht zur sozioökonomischen Entwicklung in Deutschland
- Extension of the model calculations on the future labour demand by occupation and qualification until 2030
- Demografischer Wandel - Auswirkungen auf die Bauwirtschaft durch steigenden Bedarf an stationären und ambulanten Altenpflegeplätzen.
- Nachfrageprognose im Rahmen des Projektes „regio pro“ – Flächendeckende Einführung des Frühinformationssystems zur Qualifikations- und Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Hessen
- Extension of the model calculations on the future labour demand by occupation and qualification until 2030
- Erstellung einer modellbasierten Projektion der Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften für Hessen
- Update and advancement of the BIBB-DEMOS model
- Alternative scenarios for the development of labour demand and ist qualification until 2025
- Computer based estimation of employment trends in economic sectors in Germany
- Bürgschaftsbanken
- IWC 2010
- Modellgestützte Analyse der regionalen Wertschöpfungseffekte in ländlichen Entwicklungsprogrammen
- Computer based estimation of employment trends in economic sectors in Germany
- Customer segmentation based sales forecst
- Data supply of the INFORGE model
- Development of a labour supply forecasting model that is compatible to the IAB projections on the level of 54 occupational fields
- Beschäftigungsprojektion für die Metropolregionen Rhein-Neckar und Stuttgart bis zum Jahr 2025
- Beschäftigungsprojektion für die Wachstumsregion Ems-Achse bis zum Jahr 2025
- IAB projection
- Development of a macro-econometric forecasting and simulation model
- Kommt es in Deutschland zu einer Re-Industrialisierung?
- Analyse und Modellierung der Energieverbrauchsentwicklung
- BMAS-Expert Monitoring: Development of an analytic tool to forecast the supply and demand of skilled workers in Germany
- Further development of the BMAS-Expert Monitoring