High flow of refugees - intense discussions, but hardly any economic analysis

After years of decline or stagnation, Germany is currently expecting a rising population due to the large number of people migrating to the country. Besides the migration of Europeans looking for a job in Germany, it is, however, difficult to estimate the additional immigration resulting from the high number of refugees entering the country at present.
So far, answers to questions regarding their exact number, the duration of their stay, their family structures and the number of family members following the refugees as well as their plans for the future are missing. Finding answers to these questions is crucial since they have a great impact not only on the number and (age) structure of the population but therewith also on the economic development of Germany in future.
From the economic perspective, the flow of refugees and its effects on the population have an important impact on the building investments, the government purchases, the private consumption, the exports as well as the labour market. The GWS Discussion Paper 15/17 attempts to deliver a first contribution to these questions. The paper identifies connecting factors and parameters which draw a relation between the refugee movement and its impact on the economic development in Germany. It can be downloaded (in German language) here.

Go back