The aim of the project for the German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy is to assess the impacts of electricity price exemptions for electricity intensive industries such as chemicals, iron and steel, aluminium, copper, paper and textiles.
The global model GINFORS-E – that comprises the economy at a detailed industry level, energy balance and energy prices – is used to model the economic interactions between European and Non-European countries. The impacts of higher energy costs can be analysed on GDP, employment and foreign trade by country.
Four scenarios are developed: A referenced ex-post (2007–2013) scenario shows the actual, historical development including exemptions from the EEG surcharge for energy-intensive industries. This scenario is compared to a Counter-Factual ex-post scenario without exemptions. Additionally, two ex-ante (from 2014 on) scenarios are compared. One of them includes the German EEG amendment with exemptions for energy-intensive industry, the other scenario not.
All analyses at the different levels lead to the same result: existing exemptions for energy-intensive companies support the competitiveness of the industry and have positive macroeconomic effects.