The energy transition is a long-term transformation of the German energy system. With the time horizon the probability of rare and unforeseen, but powerful incidents increases. In the project the impact of these kinds of black swans on the energy transition are analyzed. The focus is on different risk categories (economy, policy, climate and environment, infrastructure etc.) applying qualitative (ia.a expert interviews) and quantitative methods. Political and economic options for reaction and preventation are identified and assessed.
Three years after the decisions for the energy transition estimates on goal-achievment of energy policy and their effects on value added and employment are available at the national level. The question of how the energy transition affects individual federal states and spread the observable and measurable economic effects in the region is largely unanswered. This question will pursue the question for the state of Baden-Württemberg.
The focus of the studie are the impact of energy policy on value added and employment in Baden-Württemberg in the context of the specific structure of the country as well as its energy policy objectives. In particular opportunities and challenges for the economy and society for as many aspects of energy policy are to be presented jointly. This involves a description of the effects of energy policy both on the numerical amounts of value creation and employment (project module A) as well as on the quality of employment (project module B).
In this research project, we estimates future professional qualification requirements in grid-based utility companies following the energy transition. The project bases on the findings ""Future developments in the energy sector as part of the energy revolution, IZES and BIBB 2014.
The following key questions are addressed:
- How will the energy system develop in grid-connected sources by the year 2020 to 2030?
- What priorities are particularly promising for energy companies?
-What professional qualification profiles are relevant?
- What employment effects will result?
Tunisia as the most successful country in implementing the ideas of the Arab Spring has to face a number of challenges. On the one hand considerable unemployment, especially among youth and well-trained teen has to be handled, on the other hand energy supply has to be able to meet growing demands reliably and at reasonable prices. The Tunisian Solar Plan set in 2008 the framework for an expansion of renewable energy and the strengthening of energy efficiency. The GWS has carried out an evaluation of the employment effects of the Solar Plan in co-operation with Tunisian consultancy Alcor. Instruments and measures have evolved since then, so now with a new investigation an update will be presented.
The project „Approaches for further development of public finances” addresses the question of how fiscal policy can be leveraged to improve the policy framework for sustainable economic activity. One aspect of this framework concerns the political shaping of energy prices. Numerous exemptions from taxes, levies and fees reduce energy prices, particularly those faced by manufacturing industry. Lower energy prices reduce incentives for energy efficiency as well as prices for energy intensively manufactured products. A second work package takes a look at environmentally harmful subsidies. Among others reform proposals for taxes and subsidies in transport are simulated with the model PANTA RHEI.
The project in cooperation with adelphi Research looked at international aspects of the German Energiewende. GWS has focused on analyzing global value chains in renewable energy technologies and identified opportunities and challenges in international trade for the German industry. Different scenarios have been analyzed with the economy-energy-environment model GINFORS_E. Results show how different developments will influence value added and production through deployment of renewable energy sources.
Im Forschungsprojekt werden in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) der RWTH Aachen und dem Institut für ökologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IÖW) die Rolle, Funktion und die sozial-ökologischen Potenziale privater Haushalte für eine dezentrale Energiewende untersucht. Zentrales Ziel ist es, aufzuzeigen, in welchen neueren technischen und marktbezogenen Entwicklungen private Haushalte potenziell eine wichtige Rolle für das Energiesystem spielen können. Darüber hinaus sollen die Wechselwirkungen zwischen den verschiedenen energierelevanten Themen und ihren Auswirkungen auf das Verhalten der Haushalte analysiert werden. Die GWS ist innerhalb des Projektes hauptverantwortlich für die Erweiterung bzw. Präzisierung des makroökonometrischen Modells PANTA RHEI, das zur Erfassung der Haushalte als "Prosumer" um unterschiedliche Haushaltstypen erweitert wird. Die Projektlaufzeit endet im März 2016.
The aim of this project is to develop a manual for practitioners to guide them in conducting ex-ante impact assessment studies. The manual describes the procedural and analytical steps necessary to perform impact assessments and introduces and describes different macroeconomic models that exist to carry out policy impact assessments and forecasting.
Increasing energy efficiency leads to additional demand for construction, renovation and modernization work. These are positive economic incentives, if the services are provided and produced domestically. In this project, the employment effects of such energy efficiency measures for Israel were estimated. Decisive are the national energy efficiency plans as well as further energy efficiency plans and measures. As a result of COP21, the government added to the budget for measures to support energy efficiency significantly. The estimate of the impact on employment is based on economic estimates, relating to statistical data (input-output tables and national accounts). Overall, more than 5,500 people found employment after the initial efficiency plan and nearly 9000 by the new plans.
The aim of the project for the German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy is to assess the impacts of electricity price exemptions for electricity intensive industries such as chemicals, iron and steel, aluminium, copper, paper and textiles.
The global model GINFORS-E – that comprises the economy at a detailed industry level, energy balance and energy prices – is used to model the economic interactions between European and Non-European countries. The impacts of higher energy costs can be analysed on GDP, employment and foreign trade by country.
Four scenarios are developed: A referenced ex-post (2007–2013) scenario shows the actual, historical development including exemptions from the EEG surcharge for energy-intensive industries. This scenario is compared to a Counter-Factual ex-post scenario without exemptions. Additionally, two ex-ante (from 2014 on) scenarios are compared. One of them includes the German EEG amendment with exemptions for energy-intensive industry, the other scenario not.
All analyses at the different levels lead to the same result: existing exemptions for energy-intensive companies support the competitiveness of the industry and have positive macroeconomic effects.