Within the EU framework of national energy and climate plans (NECP), there is a current need for projections and impact assessments for the further development of the energy system until 2030 and 2050 respectively.
The basis for this will be provided by scenario work, which will be comprehensively evaluated and its consequences for the energy system as well as socio-economic and ecological consequences evaluated. These scenarios will be supplemented by variants and sensitivity calculations and discussed in an extensive consultation process. The project is carried out by a consortium of FhG ISI, GWS and IINAS led by Prognos AG.
An interdisciplinary Prognos team, supported by EconSight, GWS and TwinEconomics, investigated the subject of climate change and climate protection for the Bavarian Business Council for the Future. GWS used the GINFORS-E model to quantify 4 scenarios that illustrate the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of different climate mitigation ambitions. The transformation can take place without negative consequences for the German economy. Positive economic effects are expected, above all, if climate protection is implemented in a globally uniform approach (moreover, the costs of climate change are lowest then).
The GINFORS-E model has been used to provide macro-econometric estimations of the impact of measures under the Adaptation Strategy.
Three climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 and the respective adaptation scenarios are compared against a reference scenario. Using quantifications of damages from past events as input, GINFORS-E estimates impacts at industry level, including macroeconomic effects (GDP, employment, production, consumer prices) and impacts on income and consumption structure for each EU Member State.
GINFORS-E is listed in the “Modelling Inventory and Knowledge Management System of the European Commission (MIDAS)”.
The modelling results can be found in the Commission Staff Working Document on the Impact Assessment Report (SWD(2021) 25 final).
In this study, the direct, indirect and income-induced effects on employment and gross value added from the construction of a data center and a digital park in the Rhineland region were examined. The analysis of regional employment effects was conducted using a regional input-output table for NRW. An analysis of commuter flows between the "Rheinisches Revier" and surrounding districts and independent cities provides further insights into the spatial distribution of employment and income effects. The results have been incorporated into a feasibility study, which was commissioned by the NRW Ministry of Economics and carried out by Telekom via DE-CIX Management GmbH.
What are the consequences for the labour market if measures are taken to prevent from climate change and/or to adapt to climate change?" This is the central question to be answered within a project - commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection in Austria. Various climate policy measures (e.g. energy-efficient building refurbishment, switch to public transport) are analysed with regard to their impact on labour demand and CO2 savings. The e3.at (economy-energy-environment) model for Austria of the GWS is used to calculate the scenarios and to quantify the (socio-)economic, energetic and environmental consequences up to the year 2030.
The project is carried out jointly with Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) from Austria.
The project SOCLIMPACT aims at defining climate change impact-chains and low carbon transition pathways in European islands for 2050 and beyond, and analyzing their corresponding macro-economic and non-market consequences for Europe.
Firstly, climate impact projections for islands will be developed. The project will take into account the relationship between CC and biophysical impacts, according to each island’s specificities and vulnerability indicators. Secondly, the assessment of the socio-economic impacts in four key areas of the EU Blue Economy (aquaculture, coastal and maritime tourism, fisheries and maritime transport) will be done.
Finally, the project will rank and map low carbon and adaptation solutions, according to each island´s particularities and CC scenarios.
1. To develop a thorough understanding on how climate change will affect the EU islands, given their specific vulnerability compared to continental Europe.
2. To provide consolidated data and knowledge with a cross-sectorial perspective on the socio-economic costs of different climate change scenarios for 2050 and beyond, for EU islands and the spill-over effects on the EU Blue Economy.
3. To validate a new methodology for the estimation of the economic value of non-market consequences of CC as well as the non-market benefits of climate mitigation and adaptation actions for Europe.
4. To identify and rank the more appropriate low-carbon transition pathways and risk management strategies for each EU Island, according to different climate change scenarios.
5. To deliver, through innovative technological support tools, downscaled recommendations to policy makers and practitioners in order to foster the desired transition.
The main goal is the development of an energy-economy model e3.dz for Algeria and to enable Algerian partners to use the model for the projection and analysis of economic effects from the long-term development of the Algerian energy system under different scenarios. Three scenarios will be defined and implemented in the model 3e.dz regarding renewable energy deployment: business-as-usual, renewables high ambition, and renewables moderate ambition. Two other scenarios will quantify energy efficiency improvement. Training of the national partners includes model application.
The project aimed to develop a multiregional input-output projection model to quantify the effects on employment and GHG emissions of decarbonization strategies in Latin American countries and the Caribbean. The decarbonization strategies focus on structural changes in the energy sector as well as on agriculture, food production and shifts towards more sustainable diets. The results have been incorporated into the report Jobs in a net-zero emissions future in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The economic opportunities associated with the development of renewable energy are a strong argument to motivate and support RE deployment. GWS has contributed decisively to method development both in Germany and internationally. Algeria aims to increase RE's share of the electricity mix to 27% and its installed capacity to 37% by 2030. Since 2015, 20 solar parks (photovoltaic) with a total installed capacity of 343 megawatts (MW) have been put into operation. In the period from 2016 to 2020, solar or RE power plants with a total capacity of 4,000 MW are to be built. To estimate the employment effect of this development path in Algeria, the following steps are planned:
1. Estimate of jobs to be created under the RE projects in Algeria until 2030 (gross, net, direct, indirect)
2. Estimation of the contribution to the development of the service sector (SMEs, jobs)
3. Identification of RE technologies to be prioritized from the point of view of job creation