The GWS has generated a long-term projection of employment for the Saarland, one of the 16 German Federal States, depicting the development of total employment and in individual sectors up to the year 2030. The study accommodates for the increasing disparities among labour market regions and the coherent growing relevance of regionalised projections. The results help to early detect problematic situations in different regions, enabling regional players to act in time and to initiate measures to avoid scarcities or other problems in time.
In den letzten Jahren hat die Umweltwirtschaft als Beschäftigungszweig an Bedeutung gewonnen. Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes, vor allem der Fachkräfte- und Qualifikationsbedarfe, wird künftig wesentlich durch Transformationsprozesse hin zu einer Green Economy beeinflusst. Dadurch können sich Berufsbilder innerhalb einer Branche, aber auch über Branchen hinweg, verändern. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht die GWS im Rahmen des Projektes „Qualifikationsstruktur und Qualifikationsbedarfe im Umweltschutz“ gemeinsam mit dem Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB), dem Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) sowie dem Institut für ökologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IÖW) die heutige Qualifikationsstruktur und den künftigen Qualifikationsbedarf von im Bereich des Umweltschutzes tätigen Personen.
Projections for regions gain importance to support local stakeholders in their decision processes. In 2007, a labour market projection until 2025 for the Federal Land Rheinland-Pfalz and its five regions (ROR, between NUTS2 and NUTS3 level) was made. In 2014, the Federal Employment Agency and the Institute for Employment Research Rheinland-Pfalz commissioned an update of the labour market projection. In detail, the new labour market projection encompasses the number of employees in total and differentiated by economic sectors for Rheinland-Pfalz and its regions until 2030.
The aim of the project is to build in collaboration with the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and representatives of centres of excellence an analytical instrument that produces scientific-based labour market forecasts.
Das Frühinformationssystem zur Qualifikations- und Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Hessen – regio pro – wird im Laufe des Jahres aktualisiert. Hierzu benötigt das IWAK Projektionen der Beschäftigung auf der Nachfrageseite für Hessen und seine Kreise. Basierend auf INFORGE und LÄNDER werden diese Projektionen für 25 Wirtschaftsbereiche bis 2020 vorgenommen. Es werden zusätzlich detaillierte Daten von der BA genutzt. Es handelt sich um eine Verlängerung bzw. Aktualisierung des Projektes „IWAK Hessen 2“.
The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of demographic change on Germany and the consequences for the Federal Land Hamburg. Opportunities and challenges are identified showing the fields for political action in Hamburg. The results base on a scenario analysis using four different population projections. The total effect of demographic change on the single sectors of the economy (private and public demand, investment, export etc.), the private consumption structure, the labour market, unit costs and selected economic activities can be broken down in a quantity and a structural effect.
The aim of the project was to extend the labour market of the structural input-output model IAB/INFORGE with two further dimensions: occupation and qualification. Future labour demand (until 2030) was not only identified by 63 industrial sectors, but also by 54 occupational fields and formal qualification levels. The definition of occupation follows the approach by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Trianing (BIBB). Qualification levels were classified in accordance to ISCED definition of the UN. The model extension allowed for the first time the comparison of labour demand and labour supply on the level of occupational fields. Occupation-specific scarcities on the labour market were possible to be identified.
Entwicklung eines endogenisierten Ausgleichsmechanismus zwischen erlerntem und ausgeübtem Beruf im Rahmen des QuBe-Projektes.
A new baseline scenario was generated with the updated BIBB-DEMOS model. Preperations were made to allow for the integration of the population projection of the FIT model. Further, scenarios and sensitivity analysis were performed with the new and updated model.
For each year of the project duration, i.e. from 2010 until 2014, GWS provides the German Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) with an estimation of the German labour market for the current year as well as the coming year. By using the sectorally deeply disaggregated macroeconomic model INFORGE, GWS makes a projection on the employment development in each of the 59 economic sectors according to the WZ structure (German version of NACE). The projections will take into account possible structural changes as well as cyclical trends of the economy.