The LÄNDER model is a forecasting model which can be used to analyse the effects of structural changes at the level of the 16 German federal states. It directly interfaces with INFORGE, which models the German economy as a whole, and leverages value added and employment figures for individual industrial sectors calculated by INFORGE at the state level. The LÄNDER model can be used to analyse and simulate a range of scenarios at the federal state level. Depending on the analysis required, additional specific features of individual federal states can be taken into account, just as disaggregated sectoral information.
LÄNDER models regional labour markets (economically active population and employment), gross value added and wage indicators on the industrial sector-level. In addition, the effects of selected intermediate consumption interrelationships at the regional level are modelled.
The model also explores the effects of regional differences in population projections on the economic cycle within the federal states. This process allows to picture regional interrelationships within the macroeconomic context. The current version of the LÄNDER model calculates forecasts and scenarios through to 2030.
The core data is taken from the federal state accounts, which provide indicators including time series for wages, gross value added and employment for up to 20 industrial sectors.
This is supplemented by German Federal Employment Agency data on the detailed structure of employment, including demographic and socioeconomic time series. The demographic projections of the Federal Statistical Office are also implemented.
Selected Publications
- Erneuerbar beschäftigt in den Bundesländern: Bericht zur aktualisierten Abschätzung der Bruttobeschäftigung 2013 in den Bundesländern.
- Regionalisierung indirekter Effekte unter Verwendung nationaler Input-Output-Tabellen und eines räumlichen Allokationsmodells.
- LÄNDER-Modell 2013 - Grundlagen, Ansätze und erste Analysen zum aktuellen Modell.
- Erneuerbar beschäftigt in den Bundesländern – Bericht zur aktualisierten Abschätzung der Bruttobeschäftigung 2016 in den Bundesländern.
- Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Energiewende in den Bundesländern – Methodische Ansätze und Ergebnisse.
Projects
- Sectoral analysis and forecasting
- Future developments in qualification and occupation - modell calculation until 2030
- Quarterly update of sectoral analysis and forecasting
- Aktualisierung der regionalen Beschäftigungsprojektion für Rheinland-Pfalz und dessen Regionen
- Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Branchen in Deutschland und potenzielle Rückwirkungen auf Hamburg
- Extension of the model calculations on the future labour demand by occupation and qualification until 2030
- Nachfrageprognose im Rahmen des Projektes „regio pro“ – Flächendeckende Einführung des Frühinformationssystems zur Qualifikations- und Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Hessen
- Modellgestützte Analyse der regionalen Wertschöpfungseffekte in ländlichen Entwicklungsprogrammen
- Grundlagen und Eckpunkte für ein energiewirtschaftliches Gesamtkonzept für Bayern
- Macro economic and distributional effects of the German Energiewende
- Prognose der Arbeitskräftenachfrage im Rahmen des Projektes „regio pro – Regionale Berufs- und Beschäftigungsprognosen in Hessen“
- Regional employment forecast until 2030 and creation of a regional input-output-chart for Saxony
- Integrated sustainability assessment and optimization of energy systems